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• A look at the housing market in 2021…
• Fannie and Freddie have been in conservatorship for 12 years… there’s an uphill battle for GSE reforms…
• I have concerns about unemployment… and I’m very apprehensive for the future of this country right now…
• A look at Reverse Mortgages… I think this is going to be worse than anything we’ve experienced in the last couple of decades…
• The decline in the dollar is a sign that Asia, the emerging markets, and Europe are coming back fairly nicely…
• There is a tremendous optimism for 2021… I do see sparks of innovation coming through…
• I’ve seen instances where Underwriters are at $175k to $200k per year… and leaving companies for higher amounts…
• You’re going to see more and more technology and innovation in 2021 that will drive down costs…
• Some companies are sitting on a pile of case and are cautiously conservative about what to do with it…
• What companies will survive beyond 2020? Those who have scaled and enhanced their processes with technology…
• There’s going to be a huge decline for those in the middle range mortgage bankers…
• The big challenge in the industry is how to scale underwriting… and how do you improve communications for all stakeholders in the process of a loan…
• We’re seeing an increase in mergers and acquisitions… both a consolidation at the top and new entrants into the market…
• There’s real caution about how delinquencies will play out… but there is an optimism with there being the highest volumes and highest margins ever…

• A look at the Bear Market began back in September for Ginnie Mae securities…
• A look at interest rates… there are signs of inflation yet we haven’t seen such a move to disrupt the mortgage markets…
• Where are rates heading? They’re going higher… don’t be blinded by your own ideology…
• Interest rates are going higher… another 15 basis points higher in yields…
• A look at warehouse lending… some of the highest warehouse volumes in the history of the industry…
• A look at how warehouse lenders are looking at credit risks, financial risks, and operational risks…
• The Warehouse Lenders are very interested in the strategies and changes and anticipated things coming down the pike…
• A look at the very definite change at Ginnie Mae… patching up elements that may have gotten out of control this past year…
• Where are volumes going to be for 2021… we’ll only have 65% of the volume we had in 2020…
• In the Merger and Acquisition business, institutions are only looking at downside forecasts for 2021… 20% or 40% down…
• Mergers and acquisitions will pick up in 2021… a look at the value of a company…
• A look at the approvals with the GSEs… three things to focus on when it comes to Mergers and Acquisitions in the mortgage industry…
• A look at Lenders who are open to non-QM loans… people are treading carefully as they go forward…
• Resist the urge to chase the volume in non-QM… now is the time to invest in order to improve the processes…
• We’re entering a period of change…
• A look at the potential for an increase in taxes with a Biden victory…
• America has a very high debt to GDP…

• Forbearance is down 7% for the first time in 6 months… and 120 day delinquencies are exceeding nearly twice what those were in 2008…
• The amount of bankruptcies and commercial projects in jeopardy is a real concern…
• There’s a great concern that there’s going to be an increase in unemployment… and that this is going to last for a while…
• After the election… GDP anticipation is strong for 2021 regardless of whether it is Biden or Trump…
• If Biden is elected, there may be executive orders to shutdown Trump’s improvements… that will have a negative impact on the marketplace…
• The only thing hurting the housing industry right now is having properties for sale… and appreciative values…
• GinnieMae has a lot stacking up against them as we start going through the foreclosure process…
• Anyone out there should look at GinnieMae custom pools… with LTV at 90%, custom pools are paying up…
• I like servicing, but you have to anticipate the “What ifs” in servicing…
• Opportunity for independent mortgage brokers to buy into a servicing operation that’s already setup…
• Advising community banks who engage in sub-servicing to increase their review of what’s being done…
• People should service their own books to understand their risk better… people who outsource tend not to see the risk as well…
• People who can should service their own portfolio… it will create a great cashflow… and you’re really on top of your own problems…
• One reason to do your own servicing is to be closer to the origination side of things… the first person to talk to a borrower has a 65% chance to get that loan…
• Challenges finding underwriting staff… underwriters are at a premium… the look is turning to technology to improve productivity…
• The BIG question to address? Why aren’t we closing more of our pipeline?
• A look at running a public mortgage company…

• Having been in a policy role at Fannie Mae… the change with the fee seemed to be rushed… and we saw the backlash from the industry…
• There’s a need for GSE reform in order to build capital… if this fee is pushed aside, there may be others that will come…
• If the GSE fee is reversed permanently… I think other things are coming because they need to raise capital…
• Mortgage backed securities have a major liquidity problem… foreign investors have run away from MBS… need to address the churning of portfolios…
• The general trend to lower rates has created significant pressure for shops who refinance everyone for every 50 basis point change…
• In fear of this coming in place, everyone is going to rush through the doors to get refinanced…
• Get ready… this is going to push a lot more refinances through the door before December 1st…
• Highest volume in 30 years… total volume in the 2nd quarter was $1.2T… already up 12% – 14%…
• A look at the real liquidity problem faced by independent mortgage bankers increasing their warehouse facilities or obtaining new facilities…
• A word of warning for those runny fast and lose… you may find yourself going back to being a broker as warehouse lenders tighten things up…
• Warehouse lenders are scrutinizing more closely to understand how lenders are managing risk… a look at managing well in order to survive when volumes decrease…
• Warehouse lenders are going to become very intolerant of sloppy loans…
• A look at governance and policies and your publishing strategies and goals…
• Inflation expectations have risen significantly … we have a significant rise ahead of us in the near term…

• Announcement by GSEs… assessing risk of the refinance market..
• We’ve seen a tightening of credit due to the current crisis… Fannie and Freddie have taken a bigger share…
• Opportunity for an increased refinance market… at 50 basis points, the cash position will increase rapidly…
• The flood of refinances, margins at their widest levels… so it’s a 50 basis point tax on refinances…
• The academic view vs the view from inside… understanding the impact of a decision…
• There’s a finite amount of capital available… lenders need to adjust their lending… impact on Independent Mortgage Bankers…
• The importance of the relationship between Independent Mortgage Bankers and Warehouse lenders… you could see the availability of funds from Warehouse Lenders constrict in the next 6 -12 months…
• A look at monthly volume growth at GinnieMae… churning the portfolios…
• Investors are reluctant… it’s a domestic market, not an international market…
• They’re making money… you’ve got to be able to support your infrastructure… because this will go away…
• A look at the rising FICO scores and the age bracket 50+ in the market…
• There’s a huge pipeline of delinquencies that are about to hit… delinquencies tied to unemployment rate…
• There is an increase in delinquencies ahead of us… period. Refinances are propping up the current market…
• 100 million Americans rent their housing now… 28.9 – 39.9% are at risk of eviction in 2020…
• Only those who are forward-thinking are preparing for when the bottom is going to fall out…

• A look at servicing and liquidity issues… an increase in the rise of delinquencies…
• There is virtually no liquidity from depositories in the marketplace right now…
• A look at the concerns about warehouse liquidity in the marketplace…
• Pipelines are clogged and this is bringing up other issues… fatigue issues have increased…
• Commercial Real Estate and Energy lending is struggling due to Covid-19…
• The stats for increased delinquencies in commercial real estate…
• A profitable year in mortgage banking… but mortgage bankers would be wise to invest in looking ahead at what the future holds…
• The liquidity issues are real… and they’re going to get worse…
• The CFPB is here to stay… and it’s a more powerful agency due to the supreme court decision…
• Increased valuations working on mergers and acquisitions… investors are willing to pay more…
• Mortgage bankers will be paying more attention to delinquencies… it’s on the rise and we’re only seeing the tip of the iceberg right now…
• There is an increased need for a corporate advisory board for mortgage companies working with Ginnie Mae and the GSEs…

• A historical look on the effects of looting and civil unrest… insurance companies not insuring in these areas…
• History often repeats itself… a look at communities affected by riots and looting…
• Forbearance sits at 9% of all loans out there right now… a look at liability and forbearance…
• A look at mortgage companies who are wanting to become approved by the GSEs…
• What does delinquency have to reach to start to sink the smaller mortgage servicers…
• The crisis of 2007 – 2008 was caused by lenders… today’s crisis is a health crisis and it may be the lenders who help us out of it…
• A look at regulators and their comments to Servicers… there will always be politicians who blame it on the lender…
• I’m really scared for the new mortgage servicers… fees on delinquencies may jump to 1500 – $2000 per loan per year…
• The value of having a board of advisors when it comes to submitting your package to becoming approved by Ginnie, Fannie and Freddie…
• Banks had a pandemic plan… independent mortgage bankers did not have a pandemic plan…

• A look ahead at servicing with high unemployment numbers… the rise of delinquencies…
• Stepping forward to get approvals from Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac… but stepping into a storm in a precocious time…
• A look at delinquency levels in the mortgage industry comparable to 2008-2009… a look at the unemployment rate and mortgage delinquencies…
• With a $2T portfolio and 70-75% being non-depositories, with the ultimate tidal wave of delinquencies… this could be catastrophic…
• A look at Ginnie Mae and the spike in delinquencies as this continues to move forward…
• A look at the need to build equity and liquidity before reaching out to Ginnie Mae…
• A great mortgage company needs a solid purchase program that you build your mortgage company on…
• A look at obtaining Ginnie Mae approval is a gift… it’s not a right, and it should be treated with respect…
• A look at tightening credit and its impact in the mortgage industry… higher FICO scores, lower DTI ratios…
• A look at the current mortgage mergers and acquisitions market… companies are looking at a 2 x multiple with a portfolio high in refinance…

• MBA’s mortgage forbearance request survey… be sure to take a good look at that to get a feel for how quickly things are developing…
• A key issue as to whether or not this gets worse will come down to what the regulators do with regards to capital requirements…
• Home sales? In this crisis, people in New York want to move out of the city to get more space…
• Companies are beginning to realize that they’re just as productive with people sitting at home on their computers… trend is towards moving out of office retail…
• So when does this all end? Just because you see the light at the end of the tunnel, that just means you’re still in the darn tunnel…
• A look at servicing companies surviving in light of the forbearance…
• A look at what’s happening with Ginnie Mae from past president Joe Murin…
• There’s $2T inside Ginnie Mae right now, 70% of it owned by non-depositories… that math just doesn’t work in a crisis like this…
• There is no money to be lent on MSRs now… but we all know that equity position is gone…
• When it comes to independent mortgage bankers, there are some that think like bankers and are preparing for situations like this pandemic…
• A lot of IMBs have relied on their sales skills… the need for liquidity under these circumstances…
• The people who can transform their sales focus to truly operating a solid business will see opportunities for success…
•  A look at opportunities in 2nd and 3rd tier markets due to the pandemic… getting away from the big cities and working from home…
• Watch for hedge funds to purchase servicers…
• A great opportunity for mortgages going forward… people upgrading from apartments to owning their own house…

• The problem with the corona virus is the unknown…
• A look at Italy and the effects on the banks and their capital positions if a recession takes shape…
• Massive drop in oil and the risk of the loans of some of the major banks…
• Marginal costs of producing a barrel of oil in Saudi is $3…
• Impact on domestic economy and the Fed’s decision to lower rates…
• A look at mortgage rates and originations…
• Parallels to a post-911 economy…
• Impact on mortgage servicing due to current events…
• The ripple effect on warehouse lenders and impact on mortgage industry…
• A look at capital allocation from warehouse lenders…
• Rates and the impacts on prepayments skyrocketing…
• Margin calls…
• Mortgage companies are heads-down and very busy plowing through the sheer volume, some up 200%…
• Increase in mergers and acquisitions…
• Need for SWOT analysis on a regular basis…
• A look at interest rates and the limitation of the G4…
• Downgrade of Triple B rated securities… creating liquidity issues…

• A look at Iran and the investment that may flow…
• A look at manufacturing and its affect on mortgages in 2020…
• A look at inflation and the negative impact in transportation costs due to shipping companies and the switch to low sulphur fuel…
• Women represent over 50% in the job market…
• A look at marijuana sales and its impact on GDP…
• An overview of 2020 and its impact on the mortgage industry…
• A look at IMBs and the positive results of having a good year…
• Improved margins due to technology implementation… reducing loan origination costs by $2000 – $3000 per loan…
• 78% of GinnieMae’s $2 Trillion portfolio are with non-depositories… if we ever have a downturn, liquidity issues will become problematic…
• Servicing mortgages for companies who have less than 10000 loans…

• A merger of equals.. intelligent well-run companies are looking to position themselves with other strong entities that compliment each other…
• Considering the benefits of mergers and acquisitions for Independent Mortgage Bankers…
• A historical perspective of the stats on mergers… in 1990 there were 15000 banks, today there are just over 5000 banks…
• Texas Capital has the largest warehouse facility in the country… a merger combines and improves your capital position extensively…
• The biggest banks have to have stronger capital requirements… this leads to how they have to really have efficient operations…
• There are a lot of mergers and acquisitions happening… the LOS is not the single vehicle to bring them efficiency, but there is a lot of capacity to improve efficiency…
• The retail Independent Mortgage Bankers… they have to focus and have a strategy to identify their uniqueness in retail lending or it’ll be difficult for them to survive…
• The GinnieMae concern is MAJOR… economic strength, economic downturn, challenges of the Community Bankers in downtown metro areas…the way to get these consumers is through mortgage lending…
• We’re finishing the year on a high note… there is nothing on the horizon that would indicate a recession in 2020…
• A look at China and the trade wars and how it could affect the mortgage industry…

· China continues to dominate the headlines but not our economy… capital outflow from China due to currency devaluations…
· The biggest news on interest rates over the last few weeks has been the difficulty in the repo market and short term rate reactions to liquidity rules…
· Two things to keep in mind regarding the mortgage market… increase on credit card interest rates…
· Home buying increases… we’re nowhere close to a recession for 2020…
· The volumes of mortgages are so heavy due to refinances and lower interest rates… companies are not preparing enough for their internal efficiencies…
· The good times don’t last forever… it’s the time to look at inefficiencies while the times are going well…
· We’re seeing 2 sides very clearly… those who aren’t focusing on process and automation… and the surge of the community bankers…
· Industry average on margins around 14 basis points… but top performers are doubling those margins…
· There are so many buyers out there right now… it’s a buyers market…
· I’m seeing a lot going on with the CFPB… settling into the agency it was meant to be… continuing with major investigations…
· A look at various States in light of the CFPB…
· A look at Community Banks getting into the mortgage lending side of the industry…
· Comment on Community Banks within specific niche markets…
· The Community Bankers are really being hurt by the spread at the moment…
· A look at mergers and acquisitions… it’s a buyer’s market right now… this is a good time for sellers to take a look at mergers and acquisitions…

– A look at the cost to fund for independent mortgage bankers…
– Wells Fargo just announced that they lowered their targets for profits for the third time in the last 5 months… the squeeze is on…..
– A look at servicing… MSR values are headed down rapidly… expectation has lowered on what the pricing will be…
– Meeting margins… Mortgage bankers are squeezed on cash… and having trouble meeting cash demands…
– Liquidity issues for independent mortgage bankers… if something goes south on the loan, what is their motivation to help me clear that up…
– The best time to look at process flows is when you have volume… needing to look at inefficiencies…
– IMBs tend to throw bodies at the problem … handle the volume by setting up a variable cost model… outsourcing… it something the IMB must look at…
– It’s critical to be absolutely sure that you are looking at everything to increase your mortgage banking profits to a higher multiple than the industry average…
– There are top performing mortgage companies who’s profit is well north of 100 basis points… having a high blend of retail… becoming a more stable operation…
– How to you move from $3 billion to $5 billion and more? You need to have excellent technology…
– There are some very large companies out there who seek outside advisors… you can become blind to aspects of your business..

– Update on Ginnie Mae’s $2T portfolio and approach on non-depository Servicers and VA from Joe Murin
– What you’re starting to see is a lack of liquidity from financing availability for independent mortgage bankers…
– Bankers are cautiously optimistic with their viewpoint of the current market…
– What I’m seeing is a lack of leadership in the industry… lenders are too busy and may be getting sloppy… are negative mortgage rates possible?
– Most CEOs of mortgage companies have come up through sales ranks. Focus is on origination and secondary marketing… everything else they leave to someone else to do…
– One of the largest mortgage companies.. did not do adequate capital planning to have adequate warehouse lines…
– Are you able to expand quickly… and conversely, contract when the steam seems to run out…
– A look at the yield curve and recession indicators…
– The value of the dollar in many ways is being driven by these tariff policies… you can’t fight a 2 ocean war with a 1 ocean navy…
– How do you plan as a company when it comes to the uncertainty of tariffs…
– The problem for the Chinese is that they just increased the costs by about 10% by devaluing their currency… convinced they can keep domestic turmoil under control…
– We have a sufficiently growing domestic economy… yet extremely low interest rates caused by international factors…

– The key issue is there’s too much attention on the Fed and interest rates…
– Growth is not a function of liquidity… there will be more QE but it won’t work…
– Investors don’t expect anything great coming out of Quantitative Easing in Europe…
– The concern about GinnieMae and Independent Mortgage Brokers and the amount of debt… the biggest worry is liquidity in that sector…
– Over the last 18-24 months we’ve seen an erosion of the premiums that the market is willing to pay… we’re not out of the woods by a long shot…
– It’ll take a very small bump in the economy before some of these independent mortgage bankers stumble… they don’t have liquidity… and banks are going to pull back very quickly…
– An analyst at Chase says there’s a significant risk of what they call the bond tantrums… bond prices rise rapidly while stocks fall…
– Running the GinnieMae portfolio up to $2T and independent mortgage bankers not having the liquidity in case of delinquencies… I think there’s still a huge problem out in the market….
– We have to prepare for the inevitable…
– Looking at the capital structure of these independent mortgage bankers… leveraging the portfolios up to 75%… putting significant pressure on servicing portfolios…
– We would not go over 50% of the value… I came across one last week that was at 80%… what do you do? Do these lenders have the capital to pay down that balance…
– From the IMBs that I’ve talked to in the last 30 days… everybody is high on low rates… the other problem is an affordability problem… we have an inventory problem…
– The new commission appointed by the President, they don’t have the housing experience… just policy people… they need some real industry leaders on this panel…
– Failing to plan is planning to fail…Companies need to have a financial model to address various scenarios that could arise in the mortgage industry…
– Some people don’t know what they don’t know…
– Growing your servicing portfolio during a refi market…
– Is this a good time to be in mortgage banking? Opportunities for small and mid-size lenders to grow…
– A tale of two cities… companies aren’t reaping the benefits of our current mortgage environment cycle… investing in infrastructure and the future…
– There’s going to be a lot fewer mortgage companies in the next few years… how to address the future to see the opportunities…
– Any journey, whether perilous or paradise, is better when you have good council around you…
– Ainsworth Advisors have a group who have more than 325 years of experience in the mortgage industry…

– Federal Reserve perspective and updates
– Reaction to Trump’s tariffs
– Federal Reserve QE program
– Interest rate perspective going forward
– Economic slowdown anticipated with higher tariffs
– Jobs shifting around the world, not to the US
– Inflationary conditions
– Gathering data to support Administration who don’t understand economics
– Short term mortgage rates vs. long term mortgage rates
– Italy paying suppliers with IOUs… potential to break away and develop own currency
– Independent Mortgage Bankers update
– Recession prediction for end of year due to China
– Volume levels and costs
– Balancing origination vs. on-going internal management
– Update on Servicing portfolios
– Current trends in the mortgage industry

– Update on profits across the industry
– Economic update on tariffs, job growth, inflation prospects on negotiations
– Third quarter and fourth quarter expectations on interest rates
– CFPB enforcement continuing on, focus on VA lending, underwriting violations
– Regulations and legislation to be aware of for lenders
– Using residual income for non QM loans, underwriting policy
– Economic swings and innovation in technology fields
– Operational and servicing side movement in the broker field
– Consulting and modelling for pricing of lender portfolios
– A trend up in mid-range portfolios for delinquencies
– The book value put on servicing portfolios
– CEO roundtable discussion: LO comp, profitability
– The next big problem: fair lending, pricing by region
– Pricing the same within compensation structures
– ARIVE platform for originating loans
– Technology for lowering costs, Artificial Intelligence